The president-elect’s proposed 35% U.S. tariff on imports from Mexico could contract Mexico’s economy, further devalue the faltering peso, and create greater incentive for Mexicans to emigrate to the U.S. Dean Yang says under this scenario, Mexican workers in the U.S. would also be motivated to stay longer, given the greater relative value of the wages they send home. “When there’s a depreciation in the home country, people stay overseas longer,” says Yang, which could cause “an increase overall in net migration to the U.S.”

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