The US poverty rate fell after Clinton-era welfare reforms placed strict time limits on assistance. And much early research found other indicators of success as well. For example, in 2000, Bob Schoeni and Rebecca Blank found a rise in total income and a decline in poverty among those most affected by the 1996 reforms. But many researchers now see the EITC and growing economy as more important factors than TANF in decreasing poverty during this early post-reform period. In fact, some now blame the application of TANF rules during recessionary times for **increasing** poverty. For example, Luke Shaefer says TANF played a part in the rise of “extreme poverty” from 1996 forward.

More about Schoeni’s and Shaefer’s work cited in piece on impact of 1996 welfare reforms >