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Kimball’s failed replication of Reinhart-Rogoff finding cited in argument for tempered public response to social science research results

September 03, 2015

While lack of replicability for published scientific findings is discouraging, it can drive science forward in developing better theories and explanations, says the author of this piece. But when the public latches on to irreplicable results, the consequences can be much worse, especially if it leads to bad policy making. Miles Kimball, who took a second look at the data that led to Reinhart and Rogoff’s assertion that high national debt slows economic growth, did not find “even a shred of evidence” for the Reinhart-Rogoff finding – one that had influenced international economic policy since it was published in 2010.

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