Last year, William Frey, along with Ruy Teixeira and Rob Griffin, explored possible paths to victory for each party in the 2016 election. Scenario F predicted a surge in Republican Party votes emanating from white working-class Americans, which turned out to be the case. The author of this piece suggests that the assumptions underlying this prediction should worry Democrats in upcoming elections as well. Frey et al. said in their report that if the Republican party could maintain those Scenario F white voters in future elections, the party “could obtain and keep an electoral vote advantage over a number of [presidential] cycles, despite underlying demographic changes that favor Democrats.”

More about Frey’s Scenario F simulation mentioned in account of the Democratic Party’s tribulations >